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This report is also available as a file. The Committee met in response to growing evidence that the economy may have reached a cyclical peak in recent months and entered a recession at that point. The Committee concluded that the evidence is not sufficiently strong at this time to determine whether or not a recession has begun or, if so, to identify the cyclical peak. Some of the reasons for the Committee's caution were: 1 The conflict between the small decline in the Federal Reserve industrial production index and the much larger decline in gross national product in constant dollars. Historically, the NBER's first announcement of a peak and on-set of a recession occurs only when the evidence about the actual behavior of the economy becomes available for a long enough period to resolve the ambiguities created by special events.

It appears likely that the Committee will identify a month between June and September as the peak of activity in the economy and the onset of a recession.

Statement of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee on the Determination of the Dates of Turning Points in the U.S. Economy. The NBER's Business Cycle Dating Procedure: FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS. Members of the Business Cycle Dating Committee. September 20, announcement of June business cycle trough/end of last recession. Source: NBER. The determination that the last expansion began in June is the most recent decision of the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Announcement Dates with Links to Announcement Memos. The NBER's business cycle dating has evolved considerably overits history. The dates prior to the Great Depression (extending back to ) were set in based on two main inputs: contemporary narrative accounts of the health of the economy, and a small number ofFile Size: KB.

However, because many data are still preliminary, the Committee has not made a definite determination of the turning point. The Committee's policy is to make a decision only after the data show a sufficiently long and deep contraction that the episode would be termed a recession even if it were followed immediately by a strong upturn in the economy. Development of the American Economy.

Business Cycles Explained: Real Business Cycle Theory

Economic Fluctuations and Growth. International Finance and Macroeconomics. International Trade and Investment.

Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research. This report is also available as a file. NBER COMMITTEE CONFERS: NO PEAK ANNOUNCED. CAMBRIDGE, December 21 - The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met by conference call on December Does the Committee follow the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee in its deliberations? While the CEPR Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee has been conceived to operate in a manner similar to the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, its deliberations and timing of announcements are independent.

Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship. International Finance and Macroeconomics. International Trade and Investment.

The NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee maintains a chronology of the U.S. business cycle. The chronology comprises alternating dates of peaks and troughs in economic activity. A recession is a period between a peak and a trough, and an expansion is a period between a trough and a peak. During a recession, a significant decline in economic. nber business cycle dating group-meets CAMBRIDGE, July 27 - The Committee on Business Cycle Dating of the NBER met on July 26 to reviews the evidence about the current state of the U.S. economy. The Committee is responsible for maintaining the NBER's chronology of U.S. business cycles, which is widely used among economic and business analysts. Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research. This report is also available as a file. CAMBRIDGE September 20, - The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call.

Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship. Gender in the Economy Study Group.

Illinois Workplace Wellness Study. The Oregon Health Insurance Experiment. The Science of Science Funding Initiative.

Candidates are evaluated based on their research records and their capacity to contribute to the NBER's activities by program directors and steering committees.

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