This report is also available as a file. At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of an both of which lasted 16 months. In determining that a trough occurred in June , the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity. Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month.
Economic Fluctuations and Growth. International Finance and Macroeconomics. International Trade and Investment.
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Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship. Gender in the Economy Study Group. Further, macroeconomic indicators are subject to substantial revisions and measurement error. For these reasons, the committee refers to a variety of monthly indicators to choose the months of peaks and troughs.
It places particular emphasis on measures that refer to the total economy rather than to particular sectors. These include a measure of monthly GDP that has been developed by the private forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers, measures of monthly GDP and GDI that have been developed by two members of the committee in independent research James Stock and Mark Watson, available herereal personal income excluding transfers, the payroll and household measures of total employment, and aggregate hours of work in the total economy.
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The committee places less emphasis on monthly data series for industrial production and manufacturing-trade sales, because these refer to particular sectors of the economy. Movements in these series can provide useful additional information when the broader measures are ambiguous about the date of the monthly peak or trough. There is no fixed rule about what weights the committee assigns to the various indicators, or about what other measures contribute information to the process.
The committee concluded that the behavior of the quarterly series for real GDP and GDI indicates that the trough occurred in mid Real GDP reached its low point in the second quarter ofwhile the value of real GDI was essentially identical in the second and third quarters of The committee concluded that strong growth in both real GDP and real GDI in the fourth quarter of ruled out the possibility that the trough occurred later than the third quarter. The committee designated June as the month of the trough based on several monthly indicators.
The trough dates for these indicators are:. The committee concluded that the choice of June as the trough month for economic activity was consistent with the later trough months in the labor-market indicators-aggregate hours and employment-for two reasons.
The Business Cycle (Economic Expansions and Contractions) Explained in One Minute
First, the strong growth of quarterly real GDP and real GDI in the fourth quarter was inconsistent with designating any month in the fourth quarter as the trough month. The committee believes that these quarterly measures of the real volume of output across the entire economy are the most reliable measures of economic activity.
Second, in previous business cycles, aggregate hours and employment have frequently reached their troughs later than the NBER's trough date. In particular, inthe trough in payroll employment occurred 21 months after the NBER trough date.
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Inthe NBER trough date is 6 months before the trough in payroll employment. Dataset: a period of declining gross domestic product.
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Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research
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Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research. This report is also available as a file. CAMBRIDGE September 20, - The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred. Question: Map Do Sapling Learning The Business Cycle Dating Committee And The National Activity Index Are Two Methods Used To Monitor The Phases Of The Business Cycle And Determine When A Recession Occurs. Decide Which Method Each Of The Six Items Below Describes And Place It In The Correct Bin. If The Item Does Not Describe Either, Then Place It In The "neither". Business cycle dating committee defines a recession - Find a man in my area! Free to join to find a man and meet a woman online who is single and looking for you. Register and search over 40 million singles: chat. Is the number one destination for online dating with more dates than any .
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